On-Site Power Generation

Anthropic's S-1 discloses $542-567 billion of compute and infrastructure commitments, including a $417 billion deal signed Dec. 31, 2025 and up to $120.5 billion of SpaceX-hosted Nvidia capacity. The new Anthropic Direct program shifts a growing share of spend to leased, dedicated data centers, with $125.2 billion of rent over five years and Broadcom as the largest partner at $42 billion of potential financing. Broadcom rose 3% on the news, while Amazon, Google and Microsoft are shown as simultaneous suppliers, investors, customers and competitors. The filing flags large upfront cash outflows, power-connection delays and chip or equipment shortages as risks to liquidity and execution. Revenue of roughly two dollars per dollar of compute is a supportive unit-economics signal, but the scale of fixed commitments raises the stakes for AI demand continuing.

TikTok USDS Joint Venture is exploring multi-gigawatt compute procurement, with one source citing a four-gigawatt target by the early 2030s. The scale adds to the global scramble for AI infrastructure and could create sizable demand for data center capacity, power and chips. Oracle, which is both a managing investor and the primary cloud provider, remains the likely anchor beneficiary, though sourcing from other providers is possible. Localized retraining of the recommendation algorithm on U.S. data and a planned B2B AI product point to rising inference and training needs. Sources are anonymous and the spokesperson only affirmed Oracle's primary role, so the size and timing of any deals remain unconfirmed.

Microsoft's exit removes the anchor customer from Nscale's flagship UK site and undermines the government's sovereign AI compute narrative. The cause is grid connection delays rather than demand, which shows that power access is now the binding constraint on AI buildouts. The planned 23,040 Nvidia GB300 GPU deployment is delayed, deferring a block of UK GPU demand. Developers are likely to pursue on-site gas generation or other power sources and to favor locations with secured grid capacity. UK connection queue demand has surged from 41GW to 125GW, so other projects face similar risk and Ofgem's connection reforms matter more.

Amazon's expansion of its X-energy deal signals continued hyperscaler willingness to underwrite unproven SMR technology to secure long-term firm power for datacenters. The commitment is vague, with no disclosed dollar amount or firm schedule, and Amazon says it will play no role in NRC licensing. X-energy has no operating reactor and no construction permit yet, so the 12-unit Indiana plant is years from delivering power, if it is built. The deal underscores that near-term datacenter power needs must still be met by other sources such as gas and the grid. It is positive for SMR and TRISO fuel supply-chain sentiment but carries high execution and regulatory risk.

The Tennessee permit approval, tied to Kairos Power's Hermes demonstration reactor near Oak Ridge, establishes a real-world precedent that could accelerate licensing and investment across the small modular reactor (SMR) sector. Investors in SMR developers and nuclear-adjacent supply chains should expect increased deal flow, utility partnerships and state-level regulatory momentum as other jurisdictions look to replicate the approval pathway. The event strengthens the investment case for companies positioned to supply AI data centers and industrial users seeking firm, carbon-free power outside the traditional grid-interconnection queue. It also raises medium-term demand expectations for enriched uranium fuel, particularly HALEU, used in many advanced reactor designs. Execution risk remains high since construction, commissioning and first-of-a-kind cost overruns are still ahead, but the regulatory milestone reduces one major source of uncertainty for the asset class.