China Centralizes Overseas Mining Push for Critical Minerals

China is mobilizing state-linked firms through a new overseas bureau and a mining investment vehicle to take bigger stakes in foreign mines. Chinese mineral acquisitions abroad hit $8.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2026, the highest annual total since at least 2018, and outbound upstream investment is expected to roughly double.

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Beijing is moving from firm-level to state-coordinated overseas mining investment, which could give it more leverage over lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth supply. Chinese acquisitions reached $8.8 billion in nine months, and Eurasia expects outbound upstream investment to roughly double over 2021-2025 levels. China already refines about 92% of the world's rare earths, and a larger upstream presence would reinforce that chokepoint. Non-Chinese miners and processors face tougher competition for assets, while consuming industries such as EVs, chips and aerospace face greater supply risk. Host-country demands for local processing are pushing Chinese firms toward greenfield refining abroad, which may partly offset the push.