Tungsten Supply Shock Emerges From Simultaneous Wars

Simultaneous conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have depleted tungsten supplies, a metal critical to munitions and industrial production, with China controlling the dominant supply chain. This represents a new structural supply shock distinct from existing recorded critical minerals events.

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Tungsten is the hardest natural metal and is irreplaceable in armor-piercing munitions, cutting tools, and aerospace components, making this supply shock structurally significant for both defense and industrial supply chains. China controls approximately 80% of global tungsten production, and wartime depletion of non-Chinese stockpiles creates a durable structural dependency risk for Western defense industries. Defense manufacturers will face higher input costs and potential production constraints for precision munitions at exactly the moment demand is surging due to active conflicts. Industrial manufacturers using tungsten carbide cutting tools face cost inflation that cannot be quickly substituted. Western governments will likely accelerate investment in domestic tungsten mining and processing, benefiting the small number of non-Chinese producers globally.